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WTO Raises 2026 Global Trade Forecast to 3.9% on AI Boom

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WTO raised its 2026 global merchandise trade forecast to 3.9%, citing strong AI-related demand despite Middle East disruptions.

By News National Editorial Team

The World Trade Organization has sharply raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9%, more than doubling its earlier projection of 1.9%.

The WTO said stronger-than-expected investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure has provided an important boost to trade in technology-related goods, helping offset some disruption caused by the Middle East conflict.

AI becomes a major trade driver

Demand for products used in AI infrastructure, including semiconductors and servers, has grown strongly.

According to the WTO assessment reported by the Associated Press, trade in AI-enabling goods increased substantially during the first half of 2026, making these products an important contributor to overall merchandise trade growth.

This illustrates how investment in AI is increasingly affecting not only technology companies but also global manufacturing and supply chains.

Middle East remains a risk

The improved trade forecast comes despite serious disruption to energy and fertilizer flows from the Middle East.

The WTO said global supply chains have adapted to some of the disruptions, while alternative suppliers have helped reduce the broader impact.

The organisation forecasts global merchandise trade growth of 4.1% for 2027, up from its earlier projection of 2.9%.

What it means for India

For India, stronger global demand for technology products and continued investment in digital infrastructure could create opportunities for electronics manufacturing, software services, semiconductor-related industries and other technology supply chains.

However, higher energy and shipping costs caused by Middle East instability remain risks for import-dependent economies.

Sources
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