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Monsoon Retreat Begins; Season May End With 10% Rain Deficit

4 hours ago

The southwest monsoon began withdrawing from west Rajasthan on Saturday. IMD says the season may close on Sept 30 with a deficit above 10%.

India's southwest monsoon began withdrawing from west Rajasthan on Saturday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, with the season so far running a nationwide rainfall deficit of 15% between June 1 and September 19. The retreat started days after the normal onset date of September 17.

The line of withdrawal on Saturday passed through Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi and Khajuwala. The IMD said conditions were favourable for the monsoon to pull back from more parts of Rajasthan and some parts of Punjab, Saurashtra and Kachchh over the next three to four days.

As many as 14 states have reported a rain shortfall of more than 20% so far. These include Bihar, Punjab, Haryana and all five peninsular states.

On current trends, the monsoon is likely to end on September 30 with an overall deficit of more than 10% across the country. A shortfall at that level is classified as a drought. Even so, a low pressure area and a subsequent depression over the east central Bay of Bengal may bring good rain to east India and coastal Odisha next week.

The monsoon normally starts withdrawing on September 17 and completes the process by October 15, shortly before the winter monsoon sets in over peninsular India.

The weak rains have been linked to El Nino, a climatic phenomenon marked by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. In India, El Nino is consistently tied to a harsh summer and a weak monsoon.

Sowing of kharif, or summer-sown, crops has progressed well despite the shortfall. But the crop sector is not out of danger. Regional variations and the uneven timing of rainfall could affect overall yields and hit sowing during the coming rabi season.

Acreage data released on Friday show the total sown area for all kharif crops has fallen by just over 1% this year. Paddy, the most water-intensive and highest-acreage seasonal crop, recorded a sharper drop of nearly 4% compared with the same period last year.

southwest monsoon, monsoon withdrawal, India rain deficit, IMD, El Nino, kharif crops, paddy sowing, drought India

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